Strategy & vision

Three Horizons (portfolio)

Split initiatives between core business (H1), extensions (H2) and bets (H3), and the investment that goes with each.

When. A mature product dies from under-investing in H2 and H3. This frame makes the trade-off visible to leadership.

Duration
2 h
Participants
Leadership + product leads
Output
Portfolio split with budget per horizon
Stage
Scale-up · Mature
H1 · Core businessH2 · ExtensionsH3 · Bets
Open in FigJamFind the right sequence

In FigJam: File → Duplicate to your drafts, then keep this workshop's section. Get the file on Figma Community

Filled example

H1 · Core businessField appreliability andoffline mode,finallyPennylane and Sageintegrations keptgreenOnboarding for 20 to60 techniciancompaniesParts catalogue withbarcode scanSupport before 10amH2 · ExtensionsRecurringmaintenancecontracts line, 99 €a month add-onCustomer portal forthe buildings SophieservesWholesaler channelas a resellerprogrammeH3 · BetsAutomatic routeplanning from loggedinterventionsElectricians as asecond trade, testedwith 5 companies

Example data. Fieldnote is a fictional company used to fill all 61 boards, so the examples tell one consistent story.

Mature Fieldnote, 1.1 M€ ARR with growth slowing. Élise, Karim, Nadia and finance split next year's investment.

What the team took away

Split agreed: 65 % H1, 25 % H2, 10 % H3. Recurring contracts moved from bet to extension once Nadia showed 40 companies already ask for it.

How to run it

Preparation

Agenda

  1. 15 min
    Define the horizons for us
    H1: what pays salaries today. H2: what will pay them in 2 to 3 years, already started. H3: bets with a 5-year payoff. Agree the definitions in your own words before placing anything.
  2. 35 min
    Place the portfolio
    One initiative at a time into a column. Disagreements settle on one question: 'when does this pay back?'. Write the headcount on each sticky.
  3. 15 min
    Read the split
    Sum the headcount per column. Compare with the target split the group believes in (often around 70/20/10). Name the gap out loud.
  4. 35 min
    Rebalance
    What moves? Which H1 initiatives are protecting revenue that is not at risk? Which H3 bets have no owner? Decide 3 to 5 moves with headcount attached.
  5. 20 min
    Owners and review
    Each horizon gets a named owner who reports on it quarterly. The H3 owner gets a kill-or-continue date for each bet.

Pitfalls

Afterwards

The split and the moves go into the annual plan and the next Business Model Canvas review. H1 initiatives get RICE-scored; H3 bets get an Experiment board each with a kill date.

Source : Baghai, Coley & White, McKinsey

Related workshops

Back to the compassAll workshopsVersion française