Research & discovery

Assumption mapping (desirability, feasibility, viability)

List every assumption, place them on importance × level of evidence, test the riskiest first.

When. The missing link between vision and research: it says what to go and verify first.

Duration
2 h
Participants
Product, tech, design
Output
Ranked assumptions, test plan
Stage
Idea · Pre-PMF · Post-PMF · Scale-up · Mature
Test firstAlready validatedIgnoreMonitorWeak evidenceStrong evidenceLow importanceHigh importance
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Filled example

Test firstTechnicians will loga job with thecustomer presentOwners will pay 29 €per technicianPhotos alone areenough for invoicingAlready validatedPaper sheets getlost (12 of 12interviews)Owners spend Sundayon invoicingParts are the mainsource of lostrevenueIgnoreTechnicians want adark themeCompanies want acustomer portal nowDispatchers want amap view on day oneMonitorBoiler rooms have nosignal (offlineneeded?)Technicians usepersonal phonesAccountants acceptphoto evidenceWeak evidenceStrong evidenceLow importanceHigh importance

Example data. Fieldnote is a fictional company used to fill all 61 boards, so the examples tell one consistent story.

Pre-PMF Fieldnote, before building offline mode: Karim, Tom and Ana map the assumptions behind the first version.

What the team took away

'Customer present' was the riskiest unproven assumption: it became the first experiment, with 5 technicians and a stopwatch.

How to run it

Preparation

Agenda

  1. 10 min
    Explain the three risks
    Desirability: do they want it. Feasibility: can we build it. Viability: does it work for the business. One example of each from a past failure of the company.
  2. 25 min
    Dump assumptions
    Silent writing: 'we believe that…', one per sticky, colored by risk type. Aim for 40 or more. Quantity first, no filtering.
  3. 20 min
    Deduplicate and sharpen
    Group duplicates, split vague ones. 'Users will like it' becomes 'admins will finish setup in under 10 minutes without help'.
  4. 30 min
    Place on the grid
    One at a time, the group places each sticky: how much does the project die if this is false, how much evidence do we have. Argue for 30 seconds max per sticky.
  5. 20 min
    Pick the top right
    The high-importance, low-evidence corner is the test list. Rank it. Take the top 3 to 5.
  6. 15 min
    Design the tests
    For each: the cheapest test that could prove it false in under two weeks, the metric, the owner, the deadline.

Pitfalls

Afterwards

The top assumptions become the rows of the experiment board and the questions of the research plan. Bring the grid back after each test and move the stickies: evidence up, or importance down.

Source : David Bland

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